This skill should be used when the user asks to "create financial projections", "build a financial model", "forecast revenue", "calculate burn rate", "estimate runway", "model cash flow", or requests 3-5 year financial planning for a startup.
npxskills add wshobson/agents--skill startup-financial-modelingLoading…
Build comprehensive 3-5 year financial models with revenue projections, cost structures, cash flow analysis, and scenario planning for early-stage startups.
Financial modeling provides the quantitative foundation for startup strategy, fundraising, and operational planning. Create realistic projections using cohort-based revenue modeling, detailed cost structures, and scenario analysis to support decision-making and investor presentations.
Cohort-Based Projections: Build revenue from customer acquisition and retention by cohort.
Formula:
MRR = Σ (Cohort Size × Retention Rate × ARPU)
ARR = MRR × 12
Key Inputs:
Operating Expenses Categories:
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)
Research & Development (R&D)
General & Administrative (G&A)
Components:
Formula:
Runway = Current Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate
Monthly Burn = Monthly Revenue - Monthly Expenses
Role-Based Hiring Plan: Track headcount by department and role.
Key Metrics:
Typical Ratios (Early-Stage SaaS):
Conservative Scenario (P10):
Base Scenario (P50):
Optimistic Scenario (P90):
Detailed Projections: 3 Years
High-Level Projections: Years 4-5
Originally a 2763-byte section in this SKILL.md. Moved to references/details.md to fit Codex's 8 KB skill body cap.
Revenue Drivers:
Key Ratios:
Example Projection:
Year 1: $500K ARR, 50 customers, $100K MRR by Dec
Year 2: $2.5M ARR, 200 customers, $208K MRR by Dec
Year 3: $8M ARR, 600 customers, $667K MRR by Dec
Revenue Drivers:
Key Ratios:
Example Projection:
Year 1: $5M GMV, 15% take rate = $750K revenue
Year 2: $20M GMV, 15% take rate = $3M revenue
Year 3: $60M GMV, 15% take rate = $9M revenue
Revenue Drivers:
Key Ratios:
Revenue Drivers:
Key Ratios:
Pre-Money Valuation: Based on metrics and comparables.
Dilution:
Post-Money = Pre-Money + Investment
Dilution % = Investment / Post-Money
Use of Funds: Allocate funding to extend runway and achieve milestones.
Example:
Raise: $5M at $20M pre-money
Post-Money: $25M
Dilution: 20%
Use of Funds:
- Product Development: $2M (40%)
- Sales & Marketing: $2M (40%)
- G&A and Operations: $0.5M (10%)
- Working Capital: $0.5M (10%)
Identify Key Milestones:
Funding Amount: Ensure runway to achieve next milestone + 6 months buffer.
Pitfall 1: Overly Optimistic Revenue
Pitfall 2: Underestimating Costs
Pitfall 3: Ignoring Cash Flow Timing
Pitfall 4: Static Headcount
Pitfall 5: Not Scenario Planning
Sanity Checks:
Benchmark Against Peers: Compare key metrics to similar companies at similar stage.
Investor Feedback: Share model with advisors or investors for feedback on assumptions.
To create a startup financial model:
Create or update AgentSkills. Use when designing, structuring, or packaging skills with scripts, references, and assets.
Create or update AgentSkills. Use when designing, structuring, or packaging skills with scripts, references, and assets.
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Create or update AgentSkills. Use when designing, structuring, or packaging skills with scripts, references, and assets.
Create or update AgentSkills. Use when designing, structuring, or packaging skills with scripts, references, and assets.
Set up and use 1Password CLI (op). Use when installing the CLI, enabling desktop app integration, signing in (single or multi-account), or reading/injecting/running secrets via op.
CLI to manage emails via IMAP/SMTP. Use `himalaya` to list, read, write, reply, forward, search, and organize emails from the terminal. Supports multiple accounts and message composition with MML (MIME Meta Language).